Fifth of the world’s people face life-threatening heat by end of 2100

Category: (Self-Study) Science/Environment

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At the end of the century, more than two billion people will be living in countries where extreme heat becomes life-threatening according to researchers in Europe and China.

That is expected to be a fifth of the population according to their research just published.

The warning about life-threatening global warming says that extreme heat will make life unbearable for many in the Global South.

The authors of the report on global warming say evidence shows humans have historically flourished in regions where the temperature is around 13 degrees Celsius.

Monsoon areas in South Asia have also fared well peaking at around 27 degrees Celsius.

But the report says people living in areas outside of these favored climates are less likely to thrive.

Using previously published research, the report says human health declines for many reasons, such as poor agriculture, therefore poor diet and nutrition.

Extreme heat also leads to lost days of employment and poorer economic outcomes as well as having a direct effect on human health according to the report.

Countries in Europe will become drier too according to lead author Professor Tim Lenton from the University of Exeter.

He describes the areas that will survive well as a ‘niche’ zone.

The study calculates that by conservative projections the temperature will have reached 2.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels in the year 2100.

It says that means two billion people would be living in life-threatening climatic conditions.

According to Lenton, less than 1% of humanity currently lives in places of dangerous heat exposure, but the study shows climate change has already put 9% of the population – more than 600 million people – outside this favored ‘niche’ area.

Lenton believes it’s important not just to focus on the deaths that will occur because of extreme heat.

He believes it’s also important to focus on how efforts to hold down global temperatures now will save billions of lives in the future.

This article was provided by The Associated Press.

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[Mirage shimmers on road leading to Indian Presidential Palace]

[Temperatures in India on 21 May 2023]

[Farmers working on flooded land]

[Flood water running through farm]

[Man walking through floodwater past homes]

Professor Tim Lenton (interview): “And so when we consider temperature and precipitation together, you get this interesting structure that is a big hump of people flourishing in the cooler conditions. There’s a sort of a warm, dry, less good for flourishing. And then there’s a sort of a hotter, wetter monsoonal climate flourishing. And then things drop off really sharply at higher temperatures.”

“I’m sincerely hoping this study does one little thing towards encouraging us to double up our efforts to limit global warming as close as we can to one and a half degrees centigrade and not go anywhere near 2.7 degrees centigrade because in simple terms, each point one degrees C of warming or warming avoided really matters. It can reduce the numbers exposed to unprecedented heat by 140 million people, each point one degrees C. So it is a spectacular amount to be gained in more decisive climate action.”

“If that gets to 35 degrees centigrade, we’re in grave difficulty or risk of dying because our body no longer has a way to cool itself, when it gets when that wet bulb gets about 28 degrees centigrade, we see various physiological challenges and problems start to kick in. And like all these things, they tend to be more acute for the elderly, the very young or the ill.”

[Family trying to cool down eating ice cream sitting under the shade of a tree]

[Pan off sign marking access to a water point]

[People drinking at water point]

[People pouring water in bowls for the birds to drink]

Dr. Friederike Otto (interview): “What this report highlights is that the hotter it gets, the more people will be living in these dangerous conditions and the more people will die from extreme heat. But I think it’s really important to highlight that there is nothing magic about 1.5 degrees. Already today. At 1.2 degrees, many people are dying.”

“We often don’t notice these deaths because people don’t drop dead on the street. But it’s usually those with least economic means who live in poor housing that die in in their homes and are, if ever (known about as), some statistics later.”

[Vegetable sellers and customers at market]

[Boat docked at Karampuang Island]

[Solar panel installed in a patio]

[Boat builder in workshop sanding wood]

[Coal mine]

[Crowded street with people walking in front of Delhi’s Red Fort]

This script was provided by The Associated Press.