Could more cattle cause record beef prices to drop? Ranchers say it’s not that simple

Category: (Self-Study) Business

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It’s never been so expensive for Americans to buy a steak or hamburger, but cutting those costs requires ranchers like Stephanie Hatzenbuhler to raise more cattle—and that’s not an easy ask.

For a host of reasons, Hatzenbuhler and other ranchers across the country are reluctant to grow the national herd—now its smallest in more than 75 years—and until they do so, demand will outweigh supply, and beef prices will likely remain high.

Adding cattle makes sense for some ranchers, but others are struggling to stay afloat with the cattle they have, Hatzenbuhler said.

Hatzenbuhler will make her choices as cows give birth to about 700 calves this spring on her family’s Diamond J Angus ranch on more than 2,000 wind-swept acres west of Bismarck, North Dakota. Does she opt to increase her herd, or does she offset the new arrivals by selling an equal number of cattle to meat processors?

The national herd size isn’t the only factor that determines what beef costs at the grocery store. Still, the dwindling number of cattle is a key reason the average price of all uncooked ground beef in the U.S. was $6.86 per pound in March, 3 cents off the record high set in February, according to federal statistics. That price in March is up nearly 48% from March 2021.

The U.S. cattle herd reached a high of 132 million head in 1975, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and that figure has gradually fallen to 86 million this year.

Thanks to changes in cattle genetics and feeding techniques, ranchers now produce far more meat from each head of cattle, so despite the much smaller herd, the country’s beef production hit a record 28.4 billion pounds in 2022, said Tim Petry, a North Dakota State University livestock marketing specialist. About 26 billion pounds of beef are expected in 2026.

About 2.5 billion pounds of beef were exported to other countries in 2025, and the tight remaining supply, along with the high demand, has caused record prices.

Ranchers acknowledge the higher prices, but they face plenty of challenges weighing against growing herds, especially from drought.

This article and video were provided by The Associated Press.

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[North Dakota rancher Stephanie Hatzenbuhler driving and opening the gate]

[Stephanie Hatzenbuhler’s cattles]

Jack Dura (reporting): “The price for beef is hitting all-time highs across the country, making steaks and burgers more expensive for Americans. But could increasing the number of cattle help bring down prices? It’s complicated. Some ranchers are reluctant to do so. And to some, beef is finally seeing a price correction.”

[Cows and Hatzenbuhler at the ranch]

Stephanie Hatzenbuhler (interview): “Beef prices are not high. They’re catching up to where they should be compared to everything else.”

[Hatzenbuhler and calf]

[Animals]

Jack Dura (reporting): “In fact, while there are about 46 million fewer cattle in the United States now compared to the 1970s, ranchers are producing more meat – about 26 billion pounds of it expected this year.”

[Packaged meat at a grocery store]

Jack Dura (reporting): “Cattle are now bigger. Meat production is more efficient. But ranchers say the cost of raising cattle is getting more expensive too.”

[Cows]

Stephanie Hatzenbuhler (interview): “When I look at the expenses—what a new tractor costs, a baler, land, buildings, hay—everything you need to run a cattle business, we’re just getting to the point where you might be able to sustain yourself.”

[Cattle rancher Mike Williams on his ranch]

[Cows in the pasture]

Mike Williams (interview): “I think it’s important to understand that meat is probably one of the healthiest—beef is particularly—is one of the healthiest foods a person can eat. And I think it’s worth whatever it’s costing. A lot goes into getting that beef from out here to the plate.”

[Williams driving]

Jack Dura (reporting): “Ranchers often blame the concentrated meat processing systems — primarily driven by four companies — for high beef prices. Industry representatives say that’s only partially the reason for high prices.”

[Exterior of a meat-packing plant]

Jack Dura (reporting): “A trade group of meat processors says packers don’t set prices for consumers, retailers and food service companies do.”

[Cows in a field]

Jack Dura (reporting): “Even if a rancher wanted to expand their herds, drought conditions have limited grazing in much of the American West. Trucking in feed costs extra money. And it takes years to grow a herd. It’s all adding up for beef prices to continue to be the same.”

[Exterior of a burger restaurant]

Mike Williams (interview): “A lot of times, markets can be a little bit tight. And so making ends meet can be a little bit of a challenge. But right now it’s pretty good across the board for ranchers.”

[Cow]

This script was provided by The Associated Press.